|
Specter of chaos haunts Libya
Chaos just keeps growing in Libya. Given the full-swing misinformation campaign on all sides, it is hard to confirm whether the latest reports of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's isolation and weakness are genuine, a product of a psychological campaign against him by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), or manipulations of his own.
One threat, however, is looming larger and larger, and it could dramatically affect all strategic calculations. Libya may soon become a powder keg too big and fragmented for anyone to control, including Gaddafi, the rebels, and NATO.
Last Friday, Russia, which had previously been sharply critical to NATO's campaign, joined the countries calling for Gaddafi's
ouster. We can expect the Kremlin to have extracted a handsome price for even a slight change in its
position. On Monday, eight senior officers, including five generals,defected from the government
army. On Tuesday, Gaddafi told visiting South African President Jacob Zuma that he would not give up power, and Libyan government spokesman Ibrahim Moussa warned that such a scenario would lead to full-scale civil war.
NATO has conducted more than 3,300 strike sorties since March, but its bombing campaign is growing increasingly desperate. On Tuesday, Libya accused NATO of having killed 718 and injured 4,067 civilians since the start of the
operation. British and French attack helicopters are expected to be put to use
soon, and this could be seen as a precursor to a ground invasion. Small groups of former British special forces, hired privately by Arab countries, are already on the ground in the western port city of
Misrata. This may be the beginning of a public legitimization campaign of a ground phase of the war.
Following the uprising, thousands of guns are circulating freely in Libya.
The potential for the creation of powerful criminal structures is there, and such structures would soon enough begin to pursue their own interests rather than Gaddafi's or the
rebels. There is also a threat that tribal identities might at some point trump loyalty to either Gaddafi or the rebels. Taken together, these threats add up to a recipe for a
disaster.
|
